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NEWS LETTER

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Do you want to become educated about investing in precious metals?

For the past 35 years, Rust Coin has been working to educate you, the customer, about precious metals. Our monthly newsletter, MARKETWATCH, will provide you with the most current, accurate, and pertinent information available about the precious metals markets. Each month you'll find articles on the silver, gold and platinum markets, new technological breakthroughs, and basic market observations, and occasional portfolio structuring recommendations. The more you know, the better we can serve you!

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NEWS LETTER SIGNUP
 Market Watch March, 2008      news archive >>

Rust Rare Coin, Inc. March, 2008

PRICE TRENDS

12-30-05

12-29-06

6-30-07

12-31-07

1-31-08

2-29-08

Gold

$517.10

$ 635.20

$ 648.10

$ 839.60

$ 922.20

$ 974.30

Silver

$ 8.82

$ 12.81

$ 12.35

$ 14.77

$ 16.95

$ 19.81

Platinum

$979.00

$1144.30

$1286.50

$1539.50

$1737.40

$2161.00

Palladium

$261.50

$ 328.50

$ 368.50

$ 370.05

$ 394.50

$ 567.00

Dow

10,717

12,463

13,409

13, 265

12,650

12,266

IN OUR OPINION. . . .

As March begins the metals markets feel like a runaway train. With each passing day negative economic news diminishes the appetites of investors for paper assets—especially the stock market and currencies. Conversely, there is more and more interest in commodities--especially precious metals. As reported under “Gold” some countries are creating additional venues where investors can get involved with precious metals.

Recent statements by the Fed make it evident that they will continue to lower interest rates in spite of the fact that there is concern of inflation.

We are still a bit wary that there could be some correction in the metals markets. They have moved much faster than we are comfortable with. However, due to the poor economic indicators it is difficult to say when the next pullback will be.

We still recommend purchasing on the dips. Fasten your seatbelts! This looks like a long ride!



GOLD

Gold prices came moved to new highs, after a slew of supportive US economic data confirmed higher inflationary pressures as evidenced by a higher producer price index, sinking consumer confidence, and weak home prices, thereby encouraging gold buying. The decisive factor in favor of higher gold prices at the end of the month seemed to be the comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman, Donald Kohn, that the danger of US economy weakening further is a bigger worry than higher inflation, and that the central bank has the tools and is ready to do what it needs to respond to “difficult times.” This was taken by the gold market to mean the Fed was determined to stave off further economic weakness by pursuing an aggressive accommodative monetary [policy], even at the risk of inciting inflation. The combination of higher prices and an accommodative monetary policy is tailor made for gold price appreciation. Until it becomes clear the Fed is nearing an end to its accommodative cycle, which Vice Chairman Kohn’s latest comments do not indicate, gold is likely to stay well bid. A penetration of USD/EUR 1.50, could spark further bullion buying.

Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke, told Congress at the end of February that the central bank will remain on course for additional rate cuts at least in the near term. Downside risks to growth remain the key focus of monetary policy, said Bernanke. Testifying after inflation readings for January showed rising prices, the Fed chairman acknowledged that inflation risks have increased, but he did little to alter market expectations that the Fed will choose to cut rates again at the next meeting on March 28.

World Gold Council data, issued in its quarterly publication, Demand Trends, reaffirmed the decline in jewelry and other forms of physical gold demand. The WGC tabulates that gold demand in Q4 2007 contracted 17% year-on-year to 843 tons due largely but not exclusively to a sharp drop in jewelry demand by India. The significant contraction in gold demand in Q4 came as a result of higher prices and high price volatility according to the WGC. Physical demand remains weak and, based on recent Indian import data and on conversations with merchants and information gathered from jewelers, this may become an increasingly powerful drag on gold prices. We also find it interesting that gold traded lower, despite platinum prices pushing over $2000/oz. This may be a sign of underlying weakness in the gold market, and further losses may follow.

Due to a power supply crisis, gold output from South Africa is likely to suffer considerable cutbacks. As AngloGold Ashanti announced their Q4 and 2007 year end earnings results, they also announced that they expect a reduction of approximately 400,000 ounces of gold in 2008. Anglo expected to produce between 4.8 million ounces (Moz) and 5.0 Moz of gold at cash costs ranging from $245/oz to $435/oz. AngloGold Ashanti chief executive Mark Cutifani said, “The uncertainty around Eskom power supply is having a significant impact on our operations in South Africa. This uncertainty means that our South African business faces very particular challenges right now and we’re working constructively with organized labor, Eskom and the government to ensure that we find sustainable solutions that protect the reserve integrity and potential of these operations.”

French President Nicolas Sarkozy was in South Africa at the end of February for talks with President Thabo Mbeki. The power crisis was believed to be on the agenda. Mr. Mbeki is thought to be seeking cooperation from France as well as an increase in the investment in the transport, energy, automotive, and aeronautical sectors. Accompanying Mr. Sarkozy is Anne Lauvergeon, Chairman of Areva, the French nuclear firm which is bidding for a contract to build 12 power plants in South Africa.

Meanwhile an urgent meeting has been called to discuss potential job losses in the mining industry. Minister of Minerals and Energy, Buyela Sonjica, will be joined by members of the National Union of Mineworkers Solidarity, the United Association of South Africa, the Chamber of Mines (CoM), and Eskom, Mining Weekly reports. According to Jabu Maphalala, Deputy Communications Adviser of CoM, the meeting was not to decide how many jobs would be cut but rather to assess the impact of the power crisis so far. Mr. Maphalala wants the meeting to “. . . identify the potential impacts on job losses, impacts on production issues and impacts on the mining industry’s economic contribution.”

Deutsche Bank said on Thursday, February 28, that it will launch three exchange-traded notes (ETNs) offering short, long and leveraged trading strategies in gold, underscoring growing investment interest as bullion races to record highs. “These products are the first of their kind and fill a need in the market for the investor who really follows gold and is looking for a sophisticated way to get leveraged or short exposure to it.” Gregory Collett, director in the global markets investment products group at Deutsche Bank in New York, told Reuters in a phone interview. Each of the 3 ETNs are senior unsecured obligations offered by Deutsche Bank that track the performance of an underlying index—“DB Liquid Commodity Index--Optimum Yield Gold.” The notes will be traded on the NYSE. The 3 products are namely: DB Gold Double Short ETN, DB Gold Double Long ETN, and DB Gold Short ETN.

The “double long” fund provides investors with two times the monthly performance of the Optimum Yield Gold Index plus a Treasury bill index return, while the two short funds offer investors up to two times the monthly inverse performance of the gold index plus a monthly Treasury bill index return, the bank said.

Collett said the 3 ETNs can help investors who are looking to diversify. “You shouldn’t just have stocks, bonds, real estate, and you should also have some commodities exposure,” he said. ETNs trade on exchanges throughout the day and have some similarity to exchange-traded funds (ETFs). ETFs and ETNs broaden market participation by providing easier access to investors. Exchange traded notes, unlike exchange-traded funds, do not purchase physical gold to back the number of shares sold.

Investment interest has been on the rise in gold and related products because of the metal’s price performance and as stock market woes prompt investors to flee to bullion because of its safe-haven appeal.

Hedge funds, wealthy and sophisticated investors have increasingly used commodity-related ETNs and ETFs in hopes of higher returns than stocks and bonds.

SILVER

Silver surged, as investors moved into silver, actively selling gold at the same time, thus trading the gold/silver ratio. In a pronounced bull (or bear) market, it is not unusual for silver to outperform gold and on occasion for palladium, to outperform platinum. This is due in part, we believe, to the fact that both silver and palladium are less liquid than gold and platinum, respectively and can therefore move more sharply on similar investor interest. It is also possible that investors, anxious to participate in the bullion rally, but who may be wary of purchasing gold and platinum, are targeting the “cheaper” metals, silver and palladium. Silver is the best play for 2008, but silver is never a smooth ride. It comes with a lot of risk. If owning gold is like flying in a 747, then owning silver is like flying in an F-15. With silver, one needs to be prepared for heart-stopping reversals and zigs and zags that are all but unheard of in gold.

PLATINUM/PALLADIUM

Platinum initially fell heavily on what we believe was profit taking, but active investor interest in palladium pushed that market higher. The fact that palladium rallied as platinum weakened may be evidence that investors believe the automakers will make a determined shift away from platinum and towards palladium as components of auto catalytic converters. While higher platinum prices have increased the incentive to substitute and thrift away from platinum wherever possible, we are not aware of an imminent breakthrough that would demonstrably raise palladium demand or lower platinum consumption. Rather, we believe the platinum market could be more impacted by potential labor disputes as the South African National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) is warning that it would reject any layoffs associated with power rationing to the mines. Furthermore, the NUM has threatened to strike if higher electricity tariffs were put through by the government as requested by Eskom, the national state owned power authority. Any deterioration in industrial relations at a time of tight supply threatens to push platinum prices even higher.

Although gold production losses because of the power supply problem are considerable, it is platinum that is most impacted by the power outages. South Africa is responsible for 77% of world platinum production compared to only 12% of gold output. While producers will strive to maximize efficiency, it is important to note that consumption of platinum is rising annually, and available above ground stocks have been depleted by at least 2.9 Moz in the past 12 years due to production/consumption deficits. Despite having touched $2000/oz, platinum prices may continue to rally as industrial users may feel compelled to secure supplies.

The possibility that platinum output in South Africa will remain weak could bolster platinum further and many investors in the PGM market appear to be taking an interest in palladium. It is important to distinguish, however, between an investor-led bull market and one where there has been a fundamental change in the underlying physical fundamentals.


 


IMF GOLD SALE

On February 9 the Group of Seven (G-7) rich states approved the sale of gold by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a broad reform of its budget, and warned that the world economy faced growing threats. “There was an acceptance among the G-7 that resources should be raised by selling gold,” said Italian Economy Minister, Tommaso Padoa-Schioppa, also the head of the IMF’s steering committee. He said the agreement would be finalized in April and would complement spending cuts being drawn up by the IMF. However, as of the end of February no timetable has been set for the sale

The sale will affect gold prices. Morgan Stanley analyst, Stephen Jen, said the fund held 103.4 million ounces of gold worth about $92 billion at current prices. That was up from $23 billion just five years ago. A panel of experts including Alan Greenspan and the former IMF Director, Rodrigo do Rato, recommended the IMF sell one-eighth of its 3170 tons of gold stocks. The proceeds would then be used to finance an expected income gap of about $224 million and could also be used to help pay down the debt of highly-indebted poor countries. Bearing in mind that IMF gold is currently worth near $98 billion, any IMF gold sale is likely to result in far more than the projected budget shortfall.

Any change in gold holdings requires an 85% approval vote. Since the US holds 17% of IMF voting rights, US approval is essential if the gold sales plan is to pass. US agreement in turn requires Congressional approval. The Bush Administration appears to be in favor of the IMF gold sale plan. It is not clear, however, that there is sufficient support in Congress for any such plan.

The gold market weakened demonstrably in the wake of comments by Treasury Undersecretary David McCormick suggesting that Congress may be favorably disposed to approve an IMF gold sales plan. When asked to clarify his position, the Undersecretary said it was still unclear when Congress would be asked to approve the proposed gold sales plan and that the timing would depend on implementation of the IMF’s reform agenda. This may mean that unless the IMF adopts the desired reforms, the Bush Administration may not present the sales plan to Congress for approval. However, at the end of February the US Treasury said that it is confident Congress will approve the gold sales.

We tend to believe the topic is not as important for the gold price as the financial media sometimes portray it to be. Rather, longs in the gold market may have seized on the story as a convenient reason to take profits.

Gold did indeed fall after the US Treasury said it would support gold sales by the IMF. But the physical market was abuzz with activity as gold’s fall attracted bargain hunters as well as purchases from jewelry makers, mainly form Indonesia and Vietnam.

“In my opinion, the IMF gold sales will not push the price of gold down, but psychologically, it might” said William Kwan, a dealer at Phillip Futures in Singapore. “IMF gold sales will not flow into the physical market. It only transits from one central bank to another. That’s all,” said Kwan.

Any sale of IMF gold would also be done in accordance with a European central bank gold accord, which limits total gold sales to 500 tons a year. The psychological downturn was short lived, as gold rebounded to close at $974.30 at the end of the month.

Other news from the G-7 meeting

The G-7 ended its meeting warning that the global economy faces growing threats from a US housing slump and market turmoil, pledging to take remedial action, but only if needed. The G-7 finance chiefs announced no new concrete measure to shore up their economies and markets in light of the recent subprime loan crisis.

The G-7—Britain, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the US—warned that “risks have become more skewed to the downside” in the US, the world’s leading economy. “In all our economies to varying degrees, growth is expected to slow somewhat in the short term, reflecting global economic and financial developments,” it said.

Strauss-Kahn, the new managing director renewed his call for countries to consider fiscal measures to boost demand in the face of slowing economic growth. “Some countries where you have fiscal soundness and current account surpluses have room to do something,” he said.

But US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson, said he was confident the US economy would avoid a recession, even though growth was likely to slow in the short term.

G-7 ministers pledged to work together to try to ensure stability of their economies and markets, but ministers said each country would decide its own policies.

The G-7 ministers warned that global growth may be curbed by further deterioration of the US housing market, tighter credit, high oil and commodity prices and growing inflation pressures. The ministers urged banks to come clean on their full subprime loan losses and called for greater financial market transparency.

GOLD ETF INVESTMENT MAY INCREASE 30% THIS YEAR

Investment in gold Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) promoted by the World Gold Council could surge almost 30% in 2008 if bullion prices continue to set record highs. Gold ETFs, listed on stock exchanges around the world, offer investors exposure in the underlying commodity without taking physical delivery. Sponsors of such funds buy a matching amount of the commodity and keep it in bank vaults. Interest has exploded recently as gold prices hit record highs above $930 per ounce.

Inflows into Street TRACKS, which grew nearly 40% in 2007 in volume terms, jumped to a record high of 652.56 tons in the middle of January as investors flocked to the product attracted by a gold rally. The fund now holds 631.15 tons.

There has been a shift in the ETFs investor base since the launch of the product in November, 2004, with more and more retail investors taking part now compared with predominantly institutional investors at the beginning. About half of the investor base now is comprised of retail players.


CHINA PASSES US AS

WORLD’S SECOND-LARGEST GOLD MARKET

Published on ShanghaiDaily.com

China surpassed the United States as the world’s second-biggest retail gold market last year despite soaring prices. Total consumer demand on the Chinese mainland, Hong Kong and Taiwan reached 363.3 tons, up 23.5% from a year ago, the World Gold Council said in a research report. Gold demand, including jewelry and retail investment, on the mainland topped 326 tons, up 26% from 2006. It was the first time demand surpassed 300 tons. Gold jewelry demand reached 302 tons last year for year-on-year growth of 23.5%.

China’s gold market stood out due to growing demand in the fourth quarter. Most other markets witnessed a demand drop in the fourth quarter as record high gold prices took a toll. Gold prices hit a 30-year high and topped more than $900 an ounce on concerns of inflation geopolitical uncertainty, worries of a recession in the US and a weak US dollar. In the fourth quarter gold demand rose 18% to 94.3 tons in China.

Demand in India, the world’s biggest gold market, tumbled 64% to 83.9 tons in the same period while it decreased 15% to 110.7 tons in the US

“It’s a milestone for China’s gold industry with demand surpassing 300 tons,” said an industry veteran. Domestic inflation ad volatile stock markets also add to its investment allure as a safe haven, industry veterans said.

China’s gold demand is unlikely to be hit by soaring prices this year. Investors here tend to buy more on rising prices due to an expectation of higher prices, World Gold Council veterans said last month. Chinese gold demand started rising in 2003. China’s gold sales stood at 207.6 tons in 2003. The increase in gold sales is in line with the country’s economic performance. China is expected to consume 600 tons of gold in 2010 with more people taking the precious metal as an investment vehicle, the industry forecasted earlier.

Last year China surpassed South Africa as the world’s biggest gold mining country.


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